The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is still visibly consolidated after trading in a close range with a current $81,995.96, down 2.49% at the time of writing. While the outlook remains bearish, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has issued a $1 million forecast for the coin in the mid-term. In an investor note issued on March 18, Hougan uncovered why Bitcoin price reacts the way it does during an economic crisis.
Bitcoin Price and Macroeconomic Trend
According to the Bitwise executive in his weekly CIO memo, Bitcoin does not always behave like a hedge against crisis, which is why most people buy it. There are instances where BTC price reacts to macroeconomic news in correlation with the broader US stock market.
Ahead of the March 2025 FOMC Meeting, this consolidation in Bitcoin price is showing up again. Amid this uncertainty, the Bitwise CIO said staying invested in BTC is the recipe for long-term growth. He highlighted how the price of the coin largely soared over 190% in subsequent years after a dip.
He labeled this trend a “dip then rip” phenomenon, one he believes might soon play out for the coin. Using the Discounted Cashflow Analysis (DCA) discount factor, Hougan projected that a $1 million Bitcoin price target by 2029 implies a net value of $218,604 today if investors apply a 50% discount.
Where is the BTC Price Heading?
In his analysis, Matt Hougan showcased the correlation between BTC and the US Tariff war. He highlighted how BTC’s reaction solely hinges on its low liquidity. Per the analysis, in the short term, the geopolitical tariff war injects liquidity into the market.
If this trend does not change in the short term, it might favor the coin as Bitcoin serves as a hedge against economic uncertainty. While many have speculated about the future of the coin, Matt Hougan reiterated Bitwise’s long-term price target of up to $1.1 million for Bitcoin.
At the moment, the coin traded within a tight range, moving from a low of $81,179.99 to a high of $84,230. The headwind is not cleared, but experts, including Cathie Wood, have predicted a deflationary boom ahead.
Regulations to Boost Market Outlook
According to ecosystem projections, the US government’s pivot to set up a strategic Bitcoin reserve might play a long-term role in shaping the asset’s future.
With a decisive move by proponents like Senator Cynthia Lummis, who re-introduced the Bitcoin Act Bill, institutional investors’ confidence in the coin is growing. The shifting regulation around BTC is also spreading to other asset classes, like stablecoins in the ecosystem.
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