The Bitcoin price bounced past $98,000 on Thursday in a rally attributed to leverage after open interest surged by 7.2% in 24 hours to $2.4 billion. Despite these gains, retail and institutions remain hesitant, with weakening demand leading to BTC price being stuck in a rangebound market.
At press time, Bitcoin was still holding on to some of these gains to trade at $98,373. However, a sustained uptrend depends on the price flipping resistance on a descending trendline on the hourly chart. As demand weakens, will this breakout fail and cause another crash?
Bitcoin Price Struggles Against Key Resistance as Demand Fades
Analyst Ali Charts has noted that Bitcoin price has faced three consecutive rejections in its attempt to break out of a descending trendline. After yesterday’s pump, BTC is again aiming for this resistance line, and if it fails to break it, it may lead to a downtrend.
BTC/USDT: Ali Charts
Past trends suggest that rallies to this resistance level have been met with swift selloffs that have prevented a decisive breakout. If demand continues to weaken, BTC risks further downside.
The consecutive rejections and a significant drop in demand add to the challenges facing Bitcoin and its ability to break past $100,000.
Key Metrics Suggest Weak BTC Demand – Crash Incoming?
A notable shift in demand has left BTC value today stuck in rangebound trading. The Accumulation Trend Score, a metric that measures whether large entities are accumulating or selling Bitcoin currently paints a bearish picture.
This metric currently shows low accumulation, meaning that large investors are not aggressively buying Bitcoin at the current price. This drop also shows that large entities that were accumulating BTC between October 2024 and January 2025 are no longer buying.
Bitcoin Accumulation Trend
Accumulation by large holders has always boded well for Bitcoin price. Therefore, if this cohort is hesitant, it could add to the bearish pressure facing BTC.
Data from CryptoQuant also shows that Bitcoin’s apparent demand growth has declined significantly from 279,000 in December to 70,000. This weak demand stems from inflation fears, economic uncertainty, and concerns around possible selling following FTX repayments.
Bitcoin Apparent Demand: CryptoQuant
If there is no shift in demand, a breakout of Bitcoin price past $100,000 may be delayed. However, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has once again flashed “Greed” after the recent rally past $98,000. If this holds, it could lead to more gains.
Bitcoin Price Needs to Test this Support Level to Rally
Despite the weakened demand, a Bitcoin price prediction by analyst Budhil Vyas suggests that BTC may rally if it successfully defends key support levels. According to the analyst, if BTC drops to retest the support level zone between $94,000 and $96,000, it will reduce the chance of a dump and lead to a healthy uptrend.
Bitcoin 4-hour Chart: Budhil Vyas
If Bitcoin price retests this support and bounces with strong buy volumes, it faces the next resistance at $99,350. This could lead to a rally to $100,310. However, as outlined above, such gains will happen if demand rises again.
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