Dogecoin price action has stabilized above the $0.32 mark over the past week. A recent DOGE-related announcement from Elon Musk could potentially spark a bullish start to February 2024.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Struggles to Hold Above $0.30 as TRUMP Token Encroaches on Market Share
Dogecoin (DOGE) has faced intense bearish pressure from multiple market catalysts, most notably the launch of Donald Trump’s official token on Inauguration Day. Beyond dominating media traction, the $TRUMP token has also secured significant short-term market dominance.
According to Coingecko, Dogecoin’s price declined by 4.3% on the day, mirroring the broader market sentiment, as the total crypto sector saw a 7.8% downturn.
Memecoin Market Performance, Feb 1 2025 | Source: Coingecko
Other major memes coins also faced price corrections, as crypto markets took a breather following a week packed with major U.S. economic events, including the DeepSeek vs. OpenAI legal battle, tariff discussions, and Federal Reserve policy updates.
While the ongoing DOGE price decline aligns with overall market trends, TRUMP token’s growing market share appears to be the key factor suppressing DOGE’s momentum in the last week of January.
Dogecoin currently holds a market cap of $46 billion, while TRUMP token sits at approximately $4 billion. Trading volume data highlights TRUMP token’s growing influence, as it recorded $3.1 billion in 24-hour trading volume compared to DOGE’s $1 billion.
Trading Volume to Market Cap Ratio (TVMC) and Its Impact
The TVMC ratio indicates the level of liquidity and market activity surrounding a token. TRUMP token’s high TVMC ratio suggests a more attractive trading environment, particularly for large investors. Higher trading volumes enable the execution of large transactions with minimal slippage, making TRUMP a compelling alternative for high-frequency traders.
Additionally, the shift in trader sentiment underscores a growing trend of investors pivoting away from legacy memecoins in favor of newer, high-momentum assets. The increasing adoption of AI-driven trading and trend-based speculation further reinforces this migration.
DOGE Traders Mount $22M Support as Musk Announces $1B in Savings
Trump signed the bill creating D.O.G.E. department into law on January 21, less than 24 hours after taking office. The announcement initially spurred positive market sentiment, propelling Dogecoin above the $0.40 mark, before intense profit-taking ensued. On Jan 31 Elon Musk-led D.O.G.E announced the first of wave of cost-cutting, saving US citizens over $1 billion within the agency’s first week.
‘Reducing the federal deficit from $2T to $1T in FY2026 requires cutting an average of ~$4B/day in projected 2026 spending from now to Sept 30. That would still result in a ~$1T deficit, but economic growth should be able to match that number, which would mean no inflation in 2026. Super big deal.” – Elon Musk, Jan 31, 2025.
Elon Musk-led D.O.G.E Dept. Announced $1 billion budget cuts, January 31, 2025 | Source: X.com
At the time of writing, Dogecoin spot prices have dropped by another 4.3% on Saturday, in line with a broader 7.8% memecoin market decline, signaling further downside risks. However, trading metrics in the Dogecoin derivatives market indicate a strong intent to defend the $0.30 support level.
Coinglass’ liquidation map provides insight into the distribution of leverage in active perpetual futures contracts. The data reveals that DOGE short positions, totaling $67 million, currently outpace long positions of $57 million, confirming a prevailing bearish sentiment.
Dogecoin Liquidation Map, Feb 1 2025 | Source: Coinglass
However, a closer examination of the chart shows that bulls have concentrated over $22 million in active long positions around the $0.315 mark, which accounts for nearly 50% of the total leverage deployed.
If Dogecoin’s price dips below this level, these traders face the risk of forced liquidations. To prevent such an outcome, market participants holding these positions may engage in short-covering purchases in the spot market, supporting price stability.
With Elon Musk’s latest announcement highlighting the D.O.G.E. department’s success in saving Americans $1 billion per week, positive sentiment around Dogecoin could build momentum. If this narrative gains traction, DOGE could witness renewed interest, potentially catalyzing a bullish resurgence in the near future.
Dogecoin Price Forecast: $0.40 breakout unlikely as Elliott Wave Signals Reversal
Dogecoin price forecast chart below shows a prolonged consolidation above the $0.30 mark, but technical indicators suggest a pivotal moment for traders. The Elliott Wave pattern on the chart highlights a completed corrective wave (a)-(b), indicating that DOGE could be forming a base for the next leg of price discovery. While price action remains in a downward channel, the contraction in volume suggests waning bearish momentum, which often precedes a bullish reversal.
Dogecoin Price Forecast | DOGEUSD
The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is deeply oversold at -119.50, well below the -100 threshold, signaling potential exhaustion in selling pressure. Historically, DOGE has rebounded from similar oversold levels, making this a key area to watch for bullish divergence. However, the failure to reclaim the -50 mark would indicate continued weakness, reinforcing the possibility of further downside.
On the bearish side, the dotted trendline projecting lower support levels hints at potential downside targets near $0.20 if selling persists. However, if bulls can defend the $0.30 region and trigger short-covering, a breakout above $0.35 could confirm a trend reversal, reigniting momentum toward $0.45.
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