Pepe Coin price has lost bullish momentum, leading to a 55% crash over since November 2024. This drop was a common theme across altcoins and specifically with meme coins such as PEPE and Bonk. However, on-chain data such as MVRV indicator and open interest suggest that the Pepe, the frog-based crypto, may be ripe for a rebound.
Adding credence to this bullish outlook is of MVRV and futures open interest is the ongoing Pepe whale accumulation. This buying spree form whales that scooped 30 trillion PEPE tokens off the market could hint that a bullish reversal may be likely in the coming weeks.
Pepe Coin Price Crashes, But Open Interest Spikes
According to Coinglass data, Pepe Coin price has diverged with the futures open interest (OI). The daily interest has remained above $400 million, up from just $140 million in December last year. The lowest futures open interest this year was about $405 million.
OI is an important number that looks at the outstanding call and put contracts that have been opened and are not settled. A higher figure is usually seen as a bullish sign for a cryptocurrency.
Pepe Open Interest
On top of this, the daily volume of Pepe traded in the spot market has remained higher during the ongoing crash. Pepe had a daily volume of $1.07 billion on Tuesday, higher than most popular meme coins like Shiba Inu, Bonk, and Floki.
All of these signs suggest that more investors are paying attention to PEPE and that a volatile move might be on the horizon.
PEPE Bounce Likely as MVRV Indicator Flashes Buy Signal
Meanwhile, the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator has flashed a buy signal as it dips into the buy zone, extending from -15% to -25%. Currently, the indicator hovers around -23%, denoting that investors who purchased PEPE in the past month are at an average loss of -23%.
History shows that when the 30-day MVRV enters between -15% to 25%, short-term holders capitulate and sell. Long-term or smart investors often buy at these levels, trigger a spike in buying pressure and subsequently a reversal.
In August, November and December 2024, when the 30-day MVRV dropped into these levels, Pepe Coin price shot up 72%, 71% and 51%, respectively.
If history repeats, the value of Pepe could also be primed for a similar move.
Pepe Coin MVRV indicator
Key Targets to Book Profits After PEPE Bounce
The daily chart shows that the Pepe Coin price has slumped after reaching its all-time high of $0.00002825 in December. It has plunged below the important level at $0.00001722, its March 2024 high. This retreat happened as it formed a head and shoulders-like pattern, a popular bearish sign.
Pepe has also settled at the major S&R point of the Murrey Math Lines. The Relative Strength Index, a popular momentum indicator is nearing the oversold level of 30.
Therefore, the most likely situation is where Pepe price drops to the bottom of the trading range at $0.00000895 and then rebounds. This level also coincides with the ascending trendline that links the lowest swings since April 2024.
Pepe coin price
More gains will be confirmed if Pepe rebounds and moves above the key resistance point at $0.00001722 (March 2024 high). Crossing above that level will lead to more gains, potentially to the all-time high of $0.00002825, up by 122% above the current level.
However, a drop below the ascending trendline and the bottom of the trading range at $0.0000089 will invalidate the bullish view. Such a move will be a signal that the head and shoulders pattern is working and that there are enough bears to push it further lower.
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